All well and wood

Last week James Mirtle published a feel-out post, asking his readers to make some predictions as to which players will surprise the rest of the league. I was tempted at the time to herald young Master Wellwood as a player who would put up numbers that would stop the monocled-Steen talk when it comes to the Leafs. I resisted because, frankly, I don't like to feed the Leaf-trolls. However, after seeing the Toronto Sun's article today, I felt compelled to re-visit the question: How good will Wellwood be during the 06-07 season?

Last year, Kyle put up 11g-34a-45pts in 81 gp, for a 0.55 production rate, with 22 pts coming on the power play. I'm not going to institute the scientific method to come up with a prediction, but several 'soft' variables point to a big increase in production.

First, the Leafs look to be far better equipped to score at even strength. Simply from a tactical viewpoint, Quinn barely adjusted to the new rules, and appeared content for at least half of the season to merely gain the red line then dump and change lines. 5-on-5 offense was virtually non-existent, by design. Scary, I know. Under Maurice, I anticipate a game plan that contemplates offense and defense in all three zones while at even strength for the entire season. This alone should provide a healthy boost in production by the crafty top-9 center.

Second, almost half of Wellwood's points were scored a man, or two, up. Assuming the Leafs, and the league, maintain a similar pace of penalties, in conjunction with Wellwood starting the season on the powerplay, there is reason to believe this figure will increase as well.

Finally, Wellwood himself offers reason to believe,

I really don't remember standing out and being a star in any game or anything like that...I'm going to go into camp with the attitude that I can be more patient with myself

Given Quinn's well known predilection for not giving rookies much of a chance, the pressure to perform was understandable. Without that pressure, and some added confidence with a new two-year one-way deal, Kyle should really start to mature as a play maker. And if Maurice actually gives him steady linemates?

Oh right, so I'm supposed to make an actual prediction after all that rambling. Barring injury, knock on (well)wood, a 50% increase is well(wood) within his capability. So I'll say 23g-49a-72 pts.

UPDATE: Eight days later, Ken Campbell of the Star is thinking Wellwood will put up somewhere in the area of 80 pts. It must be nice to have access to players and the coach so you can ask them questions. Maurice is thinking of slotting Kyle as the second line center flanked by Alexei Ponikarovsky, Nik Antropov, Darcy Tucker, Jeff O'Neill or Alexander Steen. Maurice is also thinking of using Kyle on PP1.

Ken does a good job of extracting some quotes from Kyle ("Playing there, you definitely get a ton of what I call free points."), and gives an update on the Matt Stajan situation ("You can put on all the muscle you want, but if you lose your speed you're not going to be effective. Hopefully I can keep my speed and at the same time, I'll be stronger on my skates and stronger along the boards.")

Ken, it was nice working with you.